A few days ago, well-known semiconductor analysis organization IC Insights announced the third-quarter revenue growth forecast of the world's top 15 semiconductor companies. The results show that the profit outlook for the third quarter of 2021 bodes well for most leading semiconductor suppliers. Especially memory suppliers, Sony and TSMC benefited from strong terminal demand and lack of cores.

In the third quarter of this year (as of September), the sales growth prospects of the top 25 semiconductor suppliers ranged from an increase of 34% (Sony) to a drop of 3% (Intel).

As shown in Figure 1, in the face of demand for 5G smartphones in the upcoming shopping season, Qualcomm and Apple expect semiconductor sales in the third quarter to increase significantly. In addition, the demand for memory in data center servers remains strong, as well as the demand for enterprise computing, 5G smartphones and related infrastructure. The three major memory chip suppliers-Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron-are expected to grow by 10% each , Kioxia expects sales to increase by 11% in the third quarter.

Judging from the results of the second quarter, TSMC is the world's third-largest semiconductor company in sales and the world's largest semiconductor foundry. It is the preferred manufacturer of semiconductor design companies based on leading 7/5nm process technology. These technologies are in great demand and account for about half of TSMC’s second-quarter revenue. The company reported that 18% of its sales in the second quarter came from chips made with 5nm process technology, while 7nm device technology accounted for 31%.

TSMC expects sales to increase by 11% in the third quarter of this year. IC Insights predicts that its sales will increase by another 4% in the fourth quarter. The agency believes that TSMC's sales in the second half of the year will increase by 14% over the first half, and a 24% increase for the whole year. If realized, this will mark the foundry giant's revenue growth of more than 20% for many years. TSMC’s annual sales increased by 31% last year.

AMD ranked 11th in revenue in the second quarter and expects its sales to increase by 6% in the third quarter. This year, AMD expects sales to increase significantly by 60%. Since the second quarter of 2020, AMD's sales have been growing rapidly. The company's sales in the third and fourth quarters of this year are expected to reach US$4.1 billion and US$4.23 billion, respectively, and sales in the second half of the year will increase by 14% over the first half. AMD uses TSMC's 7nm technology to manufacture its new Zen 3 processor.

Some leading companies-especially Intel and Texas Instruments (TI)-do not expect such optimistic growth in sales in the third quarter. TI's sales performance in the third quarter is expected to be flat. Intel is now the world's second-largest semiconductor supplier. In its recent earnings report, its sales guidance for the third quarter was set at -3%, and its full-year sales guidance was set at -1% (Figure 2).

In the context of the industry where total global semiconductor sales are expected to increase by 24% this year, Intel's performance can be described as quite weak. In addition, Intel’s sales in the second half of the year are also expected to drop by 1% from the first half. And it is expected that Intel’s sales in the fourth quarter will be 3% lower than the sales in the first quarter of 2020, resulting in basically flat performance during the two-year period.